Climate-resilient economic development in Kenyaâ??s ASALS: A pathway to achieving the Big Four Agenda
Kenya Markets Trust
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Abstract: Kenyaâ??s arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) are sites of major economic activity and are vital to national food security. The ASALs will therefore play a big role in Kenyaâ??s Big Four Agenda. As areas of growth and opportunity,the Kenya government should fully integrate the ASALs into the national economy if it is to achieve the Big Four Agenda,especially related to 100% food security and nutrition,and manufacturing. Climate change represents a big threat to the achievement of the Big Four Agenda. Five of Kenyaâ??s ASAL counties (West Pokot,Laikipia,Turkana,Baringo and Narok) have already passed the 1.5°C average warming threshold,which is enshrined in the Paris Agreement,with 12 more counties projected to follow by 2050. By 2070,maximum temperatures in all counties are expected to exceed 1.5°C,and in the counties of Wajir,West Pokot and Tana River,temperature increases will exceed 2°C. Projections indicate that the impacts of climate change will be significant in the ASALs,as detailed in the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C published in October 2018. To manage the impacts and take advantage of opportunities associated with climate change,the Kenya government and its development partners need to support the productive sectors in the ASALs,such as the livestock sector,and prioritise investments and policies that will enhance climateresilient economic development. These include investments to upgrade and transform the livestock value chain for better quality meat,milk and leather products. Doing so will contribute to the achievement of the Big Four Agenda. There is a clear role for government to provide an enabling environment,such as through climate information,extension and financial services,for private sector adaptation and to support businesses,in particular small and medium enterprises (SMEs),in their efforts to adapt to the impacts of climate change.