The Perfect Storm? Co-Occurring Climate Extremes In East Africa
Copernicus Publications
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Abstract: This research analyzes the joint occurrence of compound climate extremes?like heatwaves, wildfires, floods, and crop failures?in East Africa using ISIMIP simulations. It finds that co-occurring events will dramatically increase under all RCP scenarios, with some pairings showing nearly 900?1800% rises in frequency. The paper maps hotspot regions such as the Nile and Congo basins and explores statistical dependencies between extremes. It emphasizes that such compound events pose severe threats to ecosystems, agriculture, and infrastructure, even under low-end warming.
Author:
Derrick Muheki, Axel A. J. Deijns, Emanuele Bevacqua, Gabriele Messori, Jakob Zscheischler, Wim Thiery
Theme/Sector:
Climate Change Impacts, East Africa, Disaster Risk and Reduction, Crops and Crop Yields
Year
2024