Predicting The Potential Impacts Of Climate Change On The Endangered Endemic Annonaceae Species In East Africa
Elsevier
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Abstract: This research models habitat suitability for four threatened Annonaceae species endemic to Kenya and Tanzania using ecological niche modeling and CMIP6 climate projections. It predicts habitat contraction and expansion under SSP370 and SSP585 by 2050 and 2070, with precipitation and aridity index as key drivers. While Uvariodendron kirkii and Uvariodendron dzomboense face habitat loss, Uvaria kirkii and Asteranthe asterias could benefit from expansion. Ensemble modeling via MaxEnt and Random Forest ensures robustness. Conservation zones and prioritization are recommended to mitigate biodiversity loss.
Author:
Elijah Mbandi Mkala, Virginia Mwanzia, John Nzei, Wyclife Agumba Oluoch, Boniface K. Ngarega, Vincent Okello Wanga, Milicent Akinyi Oulo, Fedrick Munyao Mutie, Flory Mkangombe Kilingo, Penninah Rono, Emmanuel Nyongesa Waswa, Elizabeth Syowai Mutinda, Clintone Onyango Ochieng, Geoffrey Mwachala, Guang-Wan Hu, Qing-Feng Wang, Jacinta Kaweze Katunge, Izabayo Victoire
Theme/Sector:
East Africa, Biodiversity and Ecosystems, Climate Change Impacts, Environment and Natural Resources
Year
2023