Impact-Based Seasonal Rainfall Forecasting To Trigger Early Action For Droughts
Elsevier
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Abstract: This study uses ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecasts to analyze drought preparedness and early action in the Horn of Africa. Leveraging data from 21 Kenyan counties, it models probabilistic economic value (PEV) of rainfall anomalies linked to maize prices, NDVI, and water access indicators. Decision scenarios include livestock destocking and cost-loss modeling. The study emphasizes optimized lead times for action, trigger thresholds, and the dissemination of forecast value. It introduces frameworks for Early Action Protocols and anticipatory financing strategies tied to climate prediction.
Author:
Tim Busker, Hans de Moel, Bart van den Hurk, Jeroen C.J.H. Aerts
Theme/Sector:
Early Warning Systems, Climate Information Services, East Africa, Disaster Risk and Reduction
Year
2023