Impact-Based Flood Forecasting In The Greater Horn Of Africa
Copernicus Publications
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Abstract: This study presents Flood-PROOFS East Africa, an impact-based flood forecasting system for 11 countries in the Greater Horn of Africa, including Kenya. It integrates ensemble weather forecasts, hydrological simulations, and inundation mapping to predict flood impacts on populations and infrastructure. It evaluates hydrological performance across 78 river stations and simulates the 2020 Nile floods, showing strong predictive accuracy. Supporting AU and IGAD disaster centers, it offers daily warnings and risk assessments. The paper advocates for inclusive disaster preparedness and the system?s regional replication.
Author:
Lorenzo Alfieri, Andrea Libertino, Lorenzo Campo, Francesco Dottori, Simone Gabellani, Tatiana Ghizzoni, Alessandro Masoero, Lauro Rossi, Roberto Rudari, Nicola Testa, Eva Trasforini, Ahmed Amdihun, Jully Ouma, Luca Rossi, Yves Tramblay, Huan Wu, Marco Massabò
Theme/Sector:
Floods and Droughts, Disaster Risk and Reduction, East Africa, Climate Change Impacts
Year
2024