Widening Geographic Range Of Rift Valley Fever Disease Clusters Associated With Climate Change In East Africa
BMJ Group
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Abstract: This study investigates the shifting epidemiology of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in East Africa, focusing on the emergence of small disease clusters across Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania between 2008 and 2022. Contrary to prior perceptions linking RVF mainly to large-scale outbreaks triggered by El Niño-related flooding, researchers document a growing number of localized clusters?accounting for 91% of recorded events?often in highland regions previously unaffected by the virus. Using geospatial and climatic data, the study correlates RVF incidence with rising temperatures, increased rainfall, and positive shifts in vegetation indices (NDVI). Multivariate regression reveals that even modest increases in temperature or NDVI notably heighten RVF risk. The findings suggest long-term climatic changes?warming trends and altered rainfall patterns?have created permissive ecologies for virus maintenance, particularly in agriculturally productive highlands. These insights call for a re-evaluation of public health strategies, highlighting the need to prepare for RVF spread into new endemic zones and prioritize vaccine development and rapid-response systems to combat future outbreaks.