Vulnerability To Displacement: The Case Of Kihoto, Kenya
Stockholm Environment Institute
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Abstract: This working paper investigates displacement risks in Kihoto, an informal settlement near Lake Naivasha affected by rising lake levels and flooding in 2020. It assesses spatial vulnerability, livelihood disruption, and institutional response gaps. Using household surveys, business interviews, and participatory focus groups, the study reveals widespread loss of agricultural land, collapse of informal enterprises, and limited recovery support. It identifies systemic challenges such as tenure insecurity, poor coordination across agencies, absence of early warning systems, and lack of inclusive resilience strategies. Gender and age-disaggregated data expose disproportionate impacts on women and youth. The paper concludes with recommendations for strengthening disaster risk frameworks, embedding displacement risk in urban planning, and investing in adaptive infrastructure. It calls for participatory planning, policy reform, and local governance capacity strengthening to mitigate future climate displacement.