The Historical Fingerprint And Future Impact Of Climate Change On Childhood Malaria In Africa
medRxiv
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Abstract: This research paper delivers the first continent-wide attribution analysis of climate change impacts on childhood malaria prevalence across Africa. Using over 50,000 population survey records from 1900?2015, the study applies counterfactual modeling to isolate human-induced climate drivers from other socioeconomic and environmental variables. The results reveal a measurable influence of rising temperatures on malaria expansion in regions historically considered low-risk, such as the highlands of southern and eastern Africa. In Kenya and Ethiopia, warming trends correlate with significant increases in malaria cases. The paper also includes future climate simulations projecting disease burden shifts under high-emission and mitigation scenarios through 2100. Regional variations show possible declines in transmission in central and western Africa, contrasted by persistent vulnerability in the east. This work bridges climate science and epidemiology, offering robust evidence for integrated climate-health policies and improved surveillance systems. Its dataset and methods open new pathways for localized adaptation planning and healthcare readiness.