Temperature And Rainfall Trends Analysis Using Mann-Kendall And Sen?s Slope Estimator Test In Marsabit County, Kenya
Research India Publications
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Abstract: This academic paper presents a robust statistical analysis of climatic trends in Marsabit County, Kenya, using Mann?Kendall and Sen?s slope tests. Drawing on historical climate datasets from 1990 to 2022, the study quantifies temporal trends in mean temperature and rainfall, segmented by sub-county zones and seasonal cycles. Results show statistically significant warming trends across the short and long rain seasons, with less pronounced and statistically insignificant declines in precipitation. The findings suggest an increased risk of heat stress, prolonged droughts, and water insecurity for pastoral communities in this ASAL county. The paper also discusses implications for land-use planning, livestock grazing patterns, and early warning systems. Policymakers are urged to use spatial data to guide targeted adaptation strategies, including improved rainwater harvesting, climate-smart agriculture, and ecosystem restoration. This evidence fills a crucial gap in climate diagnostics for Marsabit County, reinforcing its vulnerability profile under Kenya?s national climate plans.