Measuring The Climate Security Nexus: The Integrated Climate Security Framework
PLOS Climate
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Abstract: The paper presents the Integrated Climate Security Framework (ICSF), which blends qualitative and quantitative methods to assess how climate hazards, governance fragility, and social vulnerabilities interact to exacerbate insecurity. The framework addresses five core challenges in the climate-security nexus: multiple causal pathways, contextual specificity, non-linearity, sector diversity, and geographic variation. Through tools like mediation analysis, spatial clustering, participatory research, and policy mapping, the ICSF offers a diagnostic structure for policymakers and practitioners. Using Kenya as a case study, the authors illustrate how drought, institutional gaps, and economic inequality fuel social unrest and migration. The framework encourages local knowledge integration, dynamic conflict data use, and collaborative governance modeling to inform investment and adaptation. The emphasis is placed on early action strategies, conflict-sensitive adaptation, and cross-sectoral coordination to build climate resilience while reducing human security risks. ICSF is poised to guide both emergency planning and long-term development efforts.