Hotspots Of Water Scarcity And Conflicts In The Ewaso Ng?iro North Basin
Centre for Training and Integrated Research in ASAL Development (CETRAD)
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Abstract: This study introduces an innovative and participatory approach to identifying spatial hotspots of water scarcity and conflict in Kenya?s Ewaso Ng?iro North Basin. Developed by CETRAD in collaboration with East African institutions, the assessment combines high-resolution baseline data?on water availability, poverty, land use, and agro-ecological characteristics?with expert and stakeholder input. It identifies current and future hotspots under three scenarios: peripheral transformation, agrarian transformation, and industrial transformation. Key regions with complex water scarcity?conflict patterns include the Upper Basin and the Merti aquifer zone. The hotspot mapping framework helps prioritize water development interventions, enabling context-specific solutions and conflict mitigation strategies. It also reflects significant knowledge coproduction across national, county, and academic actors, based on over two years of fieldwork, workshops, and scenario planning.