Historical And Projected Forest Cover Changes In The Mount Kenya Ecosystem: Implications For Sustainable Forest Management
Elsevier
Download
Abstract: This peer-reviewed study applies remote sensing and land-use modeling to analyze forest cover change (FCC) in the Mount Kenya Ecosystem (MKE) from 2000?2023 and projects changes to 2035 using Cellular Automata?Markov Chain Analysis (CA?MCA). Using Landsat data and explanatory variables like slope, roads, and population density, the study found that open forest, cropland, and bareland expanded while closed forest and shrubland declined significantly. The projection model shows a future decrease in closed forest (?423.53 km² by 2035) under a business-as-usual scenario, raising concerns about biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation. The study emphasizes the need for spatially informed land-use planning and participatory forest governance to reverse forest loss. Its accuracy assessment yields Kappa coefficients above 0.77, confirming robustness in classification and projection.