Drought As A Continuum - Memory Effects In Interlinked Hydrological, Ecological, And Social Systems
Copernicus Publications
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Abstract: This review challenges conventional drought definitions, proposing a systemic lens that includes memory effects across hydrological, ecological, and social domains. Drought is not an isolated event, but a complex continuum shaped by past climate patterns, resource use, and institutional responses. Drawing on systems theory and five diverse case studies—including Kenya’s ASAL regions—the authors develop four archetypes: impact and recovery, slow resilience building, gradual collapse, and high resilience–big shock. They show how past wet or dry seasons influence groundwater storage, vegetation dynamics, community coping strategies, and policy inertia. Kenya’s inclusion offers insight into borehole dependency, weak data systems, and livelihood recovery delays in arid counties. The paper calls for monitoring frameworks that integrate system memory into drought forecasts, early warning systems, and recovery planning. It emphasizes that adaptive capacity requires not just infrastructure, but knowledge continuity and institutional learning across scales and sectors.