Charging Ahead: Managing Grid Impacts from Widespread EV Adoption in African Cities
Energy for Growth Hub
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Abstract: This policy memo synthesizes findings from a detailed simulation study of Nairobi?s electric vehicle (EV) adoption and its implications for electricity distribution infrastructure. It models the effects of transitioning different vehicle fleets?paratransit, commercial, private?on Kenya's power grid using real-world data from the Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA), Kenya Power (KPLC), and Uber. The analysis identifies risks such as peak demand stress, range anxiety impacts, and transformer overloads under unmanaged charging scenarios. It quantifies potential savings and reliability improvements from smart charging strategies, prioritizes paratransit fleet electrification for off-peak benefits, and proposes targeted investments in grid upgrades, charging infrastructure, and behavioral incentives. The memo also presents actionable recommendations for policymakers, utilities, and planners to ensure a just, efficient, and data-driven EV transition in African urban contexts.