Assessing Key Behavioural Theories Of Drought Risk Adaptation: Evidence From Rural Kenya
Journal of the Society for Risk Analysis, Wiley Periodicals LLC
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Abstract: This study examines the drought adaptation behavior of 502 (agro-)pastoral households in Isiolo County, Kenya, using four behavioral theories: expected utility theory (EUT), rank-dependent utility theory (RDU), protection motivation theory (PMT), and theory of planned behavior (TPB). Results show economic theories (EUT, RDU) best fit household adaptation decisions, with risk aversion and time preferences being strong predictors. Households prefer adaptation measures that align with existing livelihoods rather than shifts to unfamiliar activities. Social constructs like self-efficacy and influence from peers also shape decisions. Gender, education, finances, and government support significantly affect uptake. The study presents actionable insights for tailoring policies to promote adoption of suitable drought adaptation strategies among dryland communities.