Africa's Energy Future: Energy Leapfrogging Potential in Four African Countries

Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI)

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Abstract: From an energy perspective,over the past decade sub-Saharan Africa has been witnessing the most radical change in its history. In 2013,from the first time since independence from colonialism,energy access in the region increased ? and this improvement steadily continued over the following years,particularly in key countries such as Kenya and Ethiopia. Universal energy access is now an achievable target for the first time in the history of the continent. Yet,what is most extraordinary is how this process has developed: African countries are now able to skip the intermediate steps characterised by an inefficient or unsustainable use of energy commodities,like those experienced in other regions such as China or South East Asia during their development phases. This is enabled by a mix of technological,regulatory and financial reasons,in which the energy transition is playing a key role. Indeed,the widespread renewable-energy potential of African countries (able to largely satisfy internal demand,even in high demandgrowth scenarios) could represent a crucial springboard for enabling the continent to experience a rapid,socially and economically sustainable development ? and for making Africa one of the active players in the global energy transition. Sub-Saharan Africa might be able to leapfrog from a situation of low or no availability of energy to a sustainable and universally accessible supply. Such progress is,however,threatened by several factors ? currently compounded by the COVID19 crisis,which has slowed down the steady growth in energy access that was previously underway. The smaller budgets available to both African governments and consumers relative to industrialised countries are a significant constraint. [1] An understanding of the factors at play in energy leapfrogging thus remains as necessary as ever in order to guarantee the continuation of such a historical shift in energy access in Africa