The future of livestock in Kenya: Opportunities and challenges in the face of uncertainty

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

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Abstract: This report looks out to 2050 and presents alternative scenarios,or plausible portrays,of the future of the cattle and poultry sectors in Kenya. The government of Kenya,with support from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID),engaged a multitude of stakeholders in a conversation around the knowns and unknowns of the future,such as past and projected trends of societal and livestock dynamics,current policy priorities,technology uptake and institutional changes. Multiple plausible futures await Kenya and its cattle and poultry sectors,each of them having highly different impacts on society. The scenarios convincingly show the escalation of many known challenges such as fierce competition for natural resources,particularly land and water,structural changes in the job market and the increased risks of emergence and spread of zoonotic diseases and livestock-driven antimicrobial resistance. These risks will be better managed in some scenarios than in others; however,unpredictable outbreaks of an emerging or re-emerging infectious disease(s) will not only drastically affect the livestock sector,or one of its subsectors,but also have such negative spillover effects on society to jeopardize years of growth and development. Stakeholders should adopt a One Health approach to appreciate the relevance and efficiency of current policies dealing with anticipated challenges in terms of zoonotic diseases,emerging infectious diseases,antimicrobial use and natural resource depletion for farms in urban and peri-urban areas.