Monitoring and Forecasting Kenyaâ??s Fluctuating Hydroclimate
American Meteorological Society
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Abstract: This study reviews Kenyaâ??s fluctuating hydroclimate (3°Sâ??4°N,35°â??40°E) and evaluates products that describe its area-averaged daily rainfall during 2008â??18,monthly evaporation during 2000â??18,and catchment hydrology via gauge,satellite,and model hindcast/forecast. Using the correlation of rainfall as a metric of skill we found daily satellite versus model hindcasts achieved 75%,while model forecasts at 2â??6-day lead achieved 55%â??58%. The daily satellite versus model soil moisture had a significant correlation (84%),and model runoff versus gauge streamflow reached 61%. A 2-day delay was noted between rainfall and streamflow response in recent flood events; however,long-range predictability was found to be poor (35%). These outcomes were considered at a local workshop,and ways to sustainably improve the real-time reporting of key hydroclimate parameters for operational data assimilation were suggested as steps toward better monitoring and forecast services in Kenya.