Insights from Tracking Thirty Years of Change in Agro Ecologies of Lower Eastern Kenya
Kenya Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO)
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Abstract: This research implements a replicable and scalable model for mapping the agro-ecologies and evaluates the dynamics contributing to the change experienced in the lower eastern region in Kenya. Google Earth Engine and R Statistics were used for data analysis that combines satellite indices and station data. Fuzzy logic was used in normalizing the layers and in computing the Agro-Ecological Zones. Change was evaluated at two checkpoints (1990-2005, 2006-2020). Results indicate that the lowland dryland areas of Kitui, Machakos and Makueni experienced an increase in the Length of Growing Period ranging from 1 to 20 days during the short rains in October, November, and December which is the main growing season in these areas. In the highland areas, Embu, Tharaka Nithi and northern dryland parts of Meru experienced a loss in LGP ranging from 1 to 10 days in most areas in both seasons. The lowland drylands did not experience notable change during the long rains of March, April, and May season. These changes were reflected in Agro-Ecological Zones, representing a decreasing potential for agricultural production, but with some areas experiencing improvement of the agro ecologies. Specifically, there is an improvement in the Lower Midlands (Machakos, Makueni, and Kitui) agro-ecology with a large part shifting from per-arid to arid during the Long Rains representing improved potential in the previously per-arid areas. Slight improvements in the Agro-Ecological Zones and Length of Growing Period were also observed in the Meru highlands.