Unpacking the nexus between climate change and cereal production: Implications for food security in the East African region

Regional Universities Forum for Capacity Building in Agriculture (RUFORUM)

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Abstract: This study is an attempt to unpack the existing link between climate change variability and food security in the East African Community (EAC) region. A plethora of empirical literature exists in the area of climate change not only at the regional level but also globally. Using secondary time series panel data, the study links cereal production patterns and rainfall and temperature dynamics from 1961 to 2012. The data were obtained from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAOSTAT) as well as the World Bank knowledge management center. Econometric data analysis was done using Eviews version 7 and GMDH version 3.8.3 statistical software. The findings of the Autoregressive model showed that rainfall and temperature are inevitably changing. These findings offer important policy insights on the role played by climate change variability on food security in the East African Community region.