Megatrends in Africa: Implications for food in urban high-density areas with special focus on Nairobi and Cape Town

Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR)

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Description: The world is undergoing various significant trends that impact both positively and negatively, necessitating awareness and appropriate responses. These trends include urbanization, migration, climate change, population growth, biodiversity loss, and pandemics like COVID-19. Understanding their effects on food systems is crucial to enhancing their resilience against these challenges. Climate change poses a substantial threat to global food security, particularly in low- and middle-income nations, leading to yield reductions, price hikes, and potential expansion of agriculture into critical ecosystems. Urban food supply chains will need to adapt to shifting supplies due to changing climate patterns, and the repercussions on human health from heat and water stress are substantial. Biodiversity degradation exacerbates these issues, driven by factors like population growth, urbanization, and market forces. Existing food systems struggle to address poverty, environmental degradation, and disruptions like pandemics, with a large percentage of Africans already experiencing food insecurity. As urban populations are projected to triple by 2050, attention to resilient urban food supply is crucial. Amid addressing immediate problems, a clear vision for a resilient, sustainable, and equitable future for food systems is vital. Reports from organizations like EAT Lancet, HLPE, and UNICEF outline pathways to achieve this goal.Nonetheless, critical knowledge gaps exist, particularly regarding food choice motives, which are complex and context-specific, influencing behaviors and nutrition outcomes. Understanding local contexts and socio-cultural dynamics is essential for crafting effective interventions. The mechanics of the food system connecting rural producers and urban consumers also require further exploration, ensuring that interventions are well-designed and monitored to prevent unintended consequences. A concerted effort towards enhancing the food system's functioning, especially for vulnerable populations, is necessary, driven by a clear intervention logic and comprehensive design that considers the evolving global landscape.